Be Wary Of These Overachievers When Filling Out Your Bracket

Largely disregarded going into the season, Northern Iowa and Butler have put together great years. Butler, unranked nationally and picked to finish seventh in the 10-team Big East back in October, placed second in the conference and finished 22nd in both the AP and Coaches’ polls. Northern Iowa exceeded expectations by an even greater margin, finishing 12th in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings (with a gaudy 30-3 record) despite being pegged for 74th in the preseason.Looking ahead to the NCAA tournament, the way both teams are seeded makes them favored to win at least one tournament game, with a puncher’s chance at even more.Great story, right? Well, sure, but our research has shown that even after a stellar season, it’s hard for such teams to completely shake off their humble beginnings. While a team’s statistical power rating will tend to stabilize late in the season, the residue of preseason expectations seems to have a lingering effect.To illustrate, I compiled pre-tourney Simple Rating System (SRS) grades for every NCAA tournament-bound team since the dawn of the 64-team-bracket era in 1985. I also crafted preseason projected SRS scores for each school using a weighted, regressed-to-the-mean average of its SRS ratings over the preceding two seasons.1For the curious: I gave a weight of 67 percent to the previous year’s score, 22 percent to the team’s score for the year before that, and 11 percent to the NCAA-average SRS score of zero. When attempting to predict the outcome of a given NCAA tournament game, the difference between a team’s seasonal SRS rating and that of its opponent clearly carries the greatest weight. But the difference between the teams’ preseason SRS projections can also alter a team’s probability of winning a tournament game by as many as 5 percentage points.This dynamic even extends to highly ranked teams such as Maryland, who finished 8th in the final AP poll after beginning the year unranked. Teams of that ilk have historically won about 25 percent fewer NCAA tournament games than they ought to have, given where they were seeded. And our model says the Terrapins are on the same track; while No. 4 seeds traditionally win about 1.5 games per tournament, our model projects an average of just 1.2 wins for Maryland in this year’s tournament.So, including Northern Iowa, Butler and Maryland, who are this year’s overachievers to be wary of? Here are this year’s teams, ranked by whose preseason rating differed the most from the non-preseason components of their overall FiveThirtyEight power rating:Check out FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions. read more

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Petit believes Argentinas bad performance could wake team for better

first_imgArgentina has failed to prove their worth by making an impact so far at Russia 2018 as the nation is on the verge of an early World Cup exit following their humiliating 3-0 defeat to Croatia on Friday.However, Messi’s brilliance on that occasion masked serious flaws with Sampaoli’s set-up, and former Barca player Emmanuel Petit believes slumping out in the group stage could be the wakeup call Argentina needs.“The whole team’s body language was so poor, no confidence, no trust between each other. The way they looked, I cannot see Argentina qualifying now,” he said via The Nation.Raheem Sterling, EnglandTop 5 best players from the international break weekend Tomás Pavel Ibarra Meda – September 11, 2019 After a fresh international break just came to an end, we need to talk about the Top 5 best players during this whole weekend.We…“It would be a shame to see them qualify, because against Iceland they looked terrible, with no inspiration, nothing at all.“And the manager Sampaoli has made so many mistakes since the start of the tournament, in choosing his team, making substitutions, everything.“You remember so many Argentina teams with great players in the past, but this team is so far from those. They look terrible.”last_img read more

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Morata blames Contes playing style for Chelsea struggles

first_imgChelsea striker Alvaro Morata believes that Antonio Conte’s direct style was the cause for his underwhelming first seasonThe Spanish forward failed to live up to his £60m price tag in last summer’s move from Real Madrid after scoring just three times in his final 23 appearances.Morata had been heavily linked with a move away from Chelsea this summer, but he is determined to prove his worth.“For me, it’s easy. I could have gone back to Spain or Italy, all the people believe in me there, but I want to change things here. I want to, not for all the haters, but for me and for Chelsea.“Chelsea gave me everything that I needed and now I have time to give back all that Chelsea gave me,” said Morata, according to Sky Sports.The 25-year-old is confident that he will flourish under new manager Maurizio Sarri’s footballing philosophy.Tammy Abraham, ChelseaChelsea hat-trick hero Tammy Abraham hopes for more Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Tammy Abraham hopes this season will be his big breakthrough at Chelsea after firing his first hat-trick for the club in Saturday’s 5-2 win at Wolves.“The most important thing is the way we play,” he said.“Last season it was direct balls and for me to protect the ball in the air is not my best quality“Now I can attack the space, I can play one touch and go in the area for the crosses. It’s better for me.“Sarri works with the ball always and when you always have the ball the strikers have more chances. I want to score more than 30 goals, but I would prefer to score 15 or 20 and get the Premier League or one big trophy.”Morata opened his scoring account for the 2018/19 campaign for Chelsea in their 3-2 victory over Arsenal in Saturday’s London derby at Stamford Bridge.last_img read more

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Mourinho wants to keep Shaw Mata Herrera and Young

first_imgThe Manchester United manager Jose Mourinho has made his intention known that he wishes for Shaw to remain in the club along with other stars of the team like Juan Mata, Ander Herrera, and Ashley Young.Until recently, Shaw has had mostly a troubled time at Manchester United. However, it is obvious he has picked up from his low form judging from his current performances in the games under Mourinho.Shaw was called back into Gareth Southgate’s England squad following the improvement in his game and Mourinho does not wish to let him go when his contract expires in the coming summer. The Manchester United coach wishes to keep him at the club for more years.Mourinho also had good words to speak of Mata, Herrera, and Young and wishes to keep them as well.ole gunnar solskjaer, manchester unitedReport: Up to seven first team players out for United George Patchias – September 13, 2019 Manchester United have some serious injury problems with up to seven first-team players out.This Saturday, United have a Premier League clash with Leicester City….“I hope they will stay,” Mourinho told Sky Sports when asked about the futures of Shaw, Mata, Herrera and Young, according to Mail Online.“We had a similar conversation last season about Marouane Fellaini and I was always saying, ‘I hope he stays, I believe he will stay,’ and I say the same thing – ‘I hope they stay’.”last_img read more

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Senate Passes State Spending Limit

first_img“Alaska must control its spending in order to refill our savings accounts and sustain constitutionally required programs Alaskans rely on in their everyday lives,” said Senate Majority Leader Peter Micciche (R-Soldotna). “Senate Bill 196 will help constrain the growth of government, so in the future we don’t find ourselves in the same difficult fiscal situation we face today.” “Had we had an effective spending cap in place during the fiscal years of 2006 through 2014, we would have about $15 billion in our Constitutional Budget Reserve right now,” said Sen. Natasha von Imhof (R-Anchorage). “A spending cap could give the Legislature the discipline it needs to keep state spending at a reasonable level from one year to the next.” Facebook0TwitterEmailPrintFriendly分享The Alaska Senate today passed a bill to limit the growth of state spending. The limit does not apply to appropriations to the Alaska Permanent Fund, payments for Permanent Fund dividends, required spending for state debt obligations, capital projects, or to meet a state of disaster declared by the governor as prescribed by law. The bill also has a three year “look back” provision to evaluate how the limit is working. “SB 196 plants a seed for a future tree of fiscal sustainability for Alaskans,” said Sen. Micciche. “Had the Legislature passed this bill 15 years ago, we would have billions more in savings, new taxes would not be a primary objective for the current House Majority, and it’s unlikely the governor would have cut Permanent Fund dividends.” To promote transparency with the public, the bill requires the governor to submit a report, along with the budget, comparing the governor’s spending proposal with the spending limit. In addition, the spending limit adjusts over time to reflect changes in inflation. The spending limit is a key priority for the Senate Majority. The Senate passed a spending limit in 2017 paired with a bill that placed guard rails around draws from the Permanent Fund earnings reserve, but the spending limit provision was rejected by the House Majority. This year, the Senate passed the spending limit as a standalone bill to simplify negotiations with the House on a solution to the state’s budget deficit. SB 196, sponsored by the Senate Finance Committee, caps unrestricted general fund (UGF) spending at $4.1 billion. SB 196 passed the Senate by a vote of 13 to zero after Senate Democrats opposed the bill during the floor debate and chose to not participate in the vote. The bill is now on its way to the Alaska House of Representatives for consideration.last_img read more

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Am happy that festival films are doing well

first_imgAnurag Kashyap said he is happy that the festival films are doing well commercially as well. ‘I think the myth that the festival films don’t work commercially has changed. This myth is thing of the past now its good the audience has changed and the credit goes to the audience,’ Kashyap said at the 16th MAMI film festival where he presented his Black Friday. Directed by Kashyap, Black Friday featured Kay Kay Menon, Nawazuddin Siddiqui among others.last_img

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